Journal articles

Published Works – Refereed Journal Articles

Student co-authors: graduate students or postdocs for whom I am/was major advisor for the published research; all other students (graduate committees or undergraduate advisees).

  1. Kowaleski, Alex M., and Jenni L. Evans, 2020: Use of multi-ensemble track clustering to inform medium-range tropical cyclone forecasts. Weather and Forecasting,
  2. Hamilton, Holly L., Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio, George S. Young, Jenni L. Evans, and Jose D. Fuentes, 2019: Topographic influence on the African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Wave energetics. Geophysical Research (Atmospheres) 125, e2019JD032138.
  3. Núñez Ocasio, Kelly M., Jenni L. Evans, and George S. Young, 2019: Tracking mesoscale convective systems that are potential candidates for tropical cyclogenesis. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 655–669,
  4. McKenna, Anne T., Amy Gaudion, and Jenni L. Evans, 2019: The role of satellites and smart devices: Data surprises and security, privacy and regulatory challenges. Penn State Law Review, 123 (3), 591-665,
  5. Bieli, Melanie, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Jenni L. Evans, and Timothy Hall, 2019a: A global climatology of Extratropical Transition Part I: Characteristics across basins. Journal of Climate, 32, 3557–3582, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0518.1.
  6. Bieli, Melanie, Suzana J. Camargo, Adam H. Sobel, Jenni L. Evans, and Timothy Hall, 2019b: A global climatology of Extratropical Transition Part II: Statistical performance of the Cyclone Phase Space. Journal of Climate, 32, 3583–3597, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0052.1.
  7. Keller, J., C. Grams, M. Riemer, H. Archambault, L. Bosart, J. Doyle, Evans, T. Galarneau, K. Griffin, P. Harr, N. Kitabatake, R. McTaggart-Cowan, F. Pantillon, J. Quinting, C. Reynolds, E. Ritchie, R. Torn, and F. Zhang, 2019: The Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones Part II: Interaction with the midlatitude flow, downstream impacts, and implications for predictability. Monthly Weather Review [Special Pandowae Collection], 147, 1077-1106, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1.
  8. Kowaleski, Alex, and Jenni L. Evans, 2018: Relationship between the track and structural evolution of Hurricane Sandy (2012) using a regional ensemble. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (12), doi:
  9. González-Alemán, Juan Jesús, Jenni L. Evans and Alex Kowaleski, 2018: Synoptic factors affecting the structural evolution and predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016) in the midlatitudes. Monthly Weather Review, 146, 3143-3162, doi:
  10. Hamilton, Holly L., George S. Young, Jenni L. Evans, Jose D. Fuentes and Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio, 2017: The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African Offshore Rainfall Maximum. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 1158–1166, doi:10.1002/2016GL071170.
  11. Kowaleski, Alex, and Jenni L. Evans, 2016a: A reformulation of tropical cyclone Potential Intensity theory incorporating energy production along a radial trajectory. Monthly Weather Review, 144, 3569–3578, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0383.1.
  12. Kowaleski, Alex, and Jenni L. Evans, 2016b: Regression mixture model clustering of multi-model ensemble forecasts of Hurricane Sandy: Partition characteristics. Monthly Weather Review, 144, 3825–3846, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0099.1.
  13. Kuruppumullage Don, Prabhani, Jenni L. Evans, Francesca Chiaromonte and Alex M. Kowaleski, 2016: Mixture-Based Path Clustering for Synthesis of ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 144, 3301-3320, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0214.1.
  14. Kowaleski, Alex, and Jenni L. Evans, 2015: Thermodynamic observations and flux calculations of the tropical cyclone surface layer in the context of potential intensity. Weather and Forecasting, 30, 1303-1320.
  15. González-Alemán, Juan Jesus, Francisco Valero, Francisco Martín-León, and Jenni L. Evans, 2015: Classification and Synoptic Analysis of Subtropical Cyclones within the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 28, 3331-3352, doi: 1175/JCLI-D-14-00276.1.
  16. Evans, Jenni L., and Casey C. Webster, 2014: A variable sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 64, S1-S8,
  17. Kozar, Michael E., Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel and Jenni L. Evans, 2013: Long-term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 118, 13,383–13,392, doi: 10.1002/2013JD020380.
  18. Waters, Jeffrey J., Jenni L. Evans, and Chris E. Forest, 2012: Large-scale diagnostics of tropical cyclogenesis potential using environment variability metrics and logistic regression models. Journal of Climate, 25, 6092-6107, doi:
  19. Kozar, Michael E., Michael E. Mann, Suzana J. Camargo, James P. Kossin and Jenni L. Evans, 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 117, D18103.
  20. Evans, Jenni L., and Jeffrey J. Waters, 2012: Simulated relationships between sea surface temperatures and tropical convection in climate models and their implications for tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 25, 7884–7895, doi:
  21. Evans, Jenni L., and Aviva J. Braun, 2012: A climatology of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 25, 7328–7340, doi:
  22. Fan, Fangxing, Michael E. Mann, Sukyoung Lee and Jenni L. Evans, 2012: Future changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon: Analysis of the CMIP3 multimodel projections. Journal of Climate, 25, 3909-3928, doi:
  23. Keller, Julia H., Sarah C. Jones, Jenni L. Evans and Patrick A. Harr, 2011: Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L12802, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047275.
  24. Evans, Jenni L., Jose D Fuentes, Xiao-Ming Hu and Holly L. Hamilton, 2011: Earth-Atmosphere interactions: Tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Caribbean and their consequent health impacts. Race and Policy Special Issue “Disaster Preparedness and Health Care: U. Va in St. Kitts and Nevis”, 7 (1).
  25. Evans, Jenni L., 2010: Environmental impacts on tropical cyclone structure and intensity change. Report to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII), La Réunion, November 2010, J. Kepert and C. Velden (Eds).
  26. Fan, Fangxing, Michael E. Mann, Sukyoung Lee and Jenni L. Evans, 2010: Observed and modeled changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the historical period. Journal of Climate, 23, 5193–5205, doi:
  27. Evans, Jenni L., and Mark P. Guishard, 2009: Atlantic Subtropical Storms. Part I: Diagnostic criteria and composite analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 137, 2065–2080, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2468.1.
  28. Guishard, Mark P., Jenni L. Evans, and Robert E. Hart, 2009: Atlantic Subtropical Storms. Part II: Climatology. Journal of Climate, 22, 3574–3594, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2346.1.
  29. Veren, Daniel, Jenni L. Evans, Sarah C. Jones, and Francesca Chiaromonte, 2009: Novel metrics for evaluation of ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone structure. Monthly Weather Review, 137, 2830–2850, doi: 10.1175/2009MWR2655.1.
  30. Pratt, Aaron, and Jenni L. Evans, 2009: Potential impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on numerical model forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 420–435, doi: 10.1175/2008WAF2007090.1.
  31. Moyer, Adam C., Jenni L. Evans, and Mark Powell, 2007: Comparison of observed gale radius statistics. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 97, 41-55, doi: 10.1007/s00703-006-0243-2.
  32. Guishard, Mark P., Elizabeth A. Nelson, Jenni L. Evans, Robert E. Hart, and Dermott G. O’Connell, 2007: Bermuda subtropical storms. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 97, 239-253, doi: 10.1007/s00703-006-0255-y.
  33. Evans, Jenni L., Justin M. Arnott, and Francesca Chiaromonte, 2006: Evaluation of operational model cyclone structure forecasts during Extratropical Transition. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 3054–3072, doi:
  34. Hart, Robert E., Clark Evans, and Jenni L. Evans, 2006: Synoptic composites of the extratropical transition lifecycle of North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Factors determining post-transition evolution. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 553–578, doi:
  35. Arnott, Justin M., Jenni L. Evans and Francesca Chiaromonte, 2004: Characterization of extratropical transition using cluster analysis. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 2916-2937, doi:
  36. Evans, Jenni L., and Barbara Prater-Mayes, 2004: Factors affecting the post-transition intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999). Monthly Weather Review, 132, 1355-1368, doi:<1355:FATPIO>2.0.CO;2.
  37. Jones, Sarah C., Patrick A. Harr, Jim Abraham, Lance F. Bosart, Peter J. Bowyer, Jenni L. Evans, Deborah E. Hanley, Barry N. Hanstrum, Robert E. Hart, François Lalaurette, Mark R. Sinclair, Roger K. Smith, and Chris Thorncroft, 2003: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 1052–1092, doi:<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.
  38. Evans, Jenni L., and Robert E. Hart, 2003: Objective indicators of the life cycle evolution of extratropical transition for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 131, 909-925, doi:<0909:OIOTLC>2.0.CO;2.
  39. Tsakraklides, Giorgos, and Jenni L. Evans, 2003: Global and regional diurnal variations of organized convection. Journal of Climate, 16, 1562–1572, doi:
  40. Chan, Steven, and Jenni L. Evans, 2002: Comparison of the structure of the ITCZ in the West Pacific during the boreal summers of 1989-1993 using AMIP simulations and ECMWF reanalysis. Journal of Climate, 15, 3549-3568, doi:<3549:COTSOT>2.0.CO;2.
  41. Kimball, Sytske K., and Jenni L. Evans, 2002: Idealized numerical simulations of hurricane-trough interaction. Monthly Weather Review, 130, 2210-2227, doi:<2210:INSOHT>2.0.CO;2.
  42. Prater, Barbara, and Jenni L. Evans, 2002: Sensitivity of modeled tropical cyclone track and structure of Hurricane Irene (1999) to the convection parameterization scheme. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 80, 103-115, doi: 10.1007/s007030200018.
  43. Evans, Jenni L., and Francine A. Jaskiewicz, 2001: Satellite-based monitoring of intraseasonal variations in tropical Pacific and Atlantic convection. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1511-1514, doi: 10.1029/1999GL011259.
  44. Hart, Robert E., and Jenni L. Evans, 2001: A climatology of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 14, 546-564, doi:<0546:ACOTET>2.0.CO;2.
  45. Easterling, D. R., Jenni L. Evans, P. Ya. Groisman, T. R. Karl, K. E. Kunkel, P. Ambenje, 2000: Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society81, 417-426, doi:<0417:OVATIE>2.3.CO;2.
  46. Meehl, G. A., T. Karl, D. R. Easterling, S. Changnon, R. Pielke Jr., D. Changnon, Jenni L. Evans, Ya. Groisman, T. R. Knutson, K. E. Kunkel, L. O. Mearns, C. Parmesan, R. Pulwarty, T. Root, R. T. Sylves, P. Whetton, F. Zwiers, 2000a: An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society81, 413-416, doi:<0413:AITTIE>2.3.CO;2.
  47. Meehl, G. A., F. Zwiers, Jenni L. Evans, T. Knutson, L. Mearns, P. Whetton, 2000b: Trends in extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 427-436, doi:<0427:TIEWAC>2.3.CO;2.
  48. Dutton, Jan F., Christopher J. Poulsen, and Jenni L. Evans, 2000: The effect of global climate change on the regions of tropical convection in CSM1. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 3049-3050, doi: 10.1029/2000GL011542.
  49. Hart, Robert E., and Jenni L. Evans, 1999: Simulations of dual vortex interaction within environmental shear. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56, 3605-3621, doi:<3605:SODVIW>2.0.CO;2.
  50. Evans, Jenni L., and Kathleen McKinley, 1998: Relative timing of tropical storm lifetime maximum intensity and track recurvature. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 65, 241-245, doi: 10.1007/BF01030792.
  51. Barros, Ana P., and Jenni L. Evans, 1997: Designing for climate variability. Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering, 123, 62-65, doi:
  52. Evans, Jenni L., and Robert E. Shemo, 1996: A procedure for automated satellite-based identification and climatology development of various classes of organized convection. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 35, 638-652, doi:<0638:APFASB>2.0.CO;2.
  53. Shemo, Robert E., and Jenni L. Evans, 1996: Contributions of various classes of convection to rainfall in the Atlantic Ocean. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 60, 191-205, doi: 10.1007/BF01029795.
  54. Watterson, Ian G., Jenni L. Evans and Brian F. Ryan, 1995: Seasonal and interannual variability of tropical cyclogenesis: Diagnostics from large-scale fields. Journal of Climate, 8, 3052-3066, doi:<3052:SAIVOT>2.0.CO;2.
  55. Evans, Jenni L., Brian F. Ryan and John L. McGregor, 1994: A numerical exploration of the sensitivity of tropical cyclone rainfall intensity to sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 7, 616-623, doi:<0616:ANEOTS>2.0.CO;2.
  56. Lighthill, Sir James, Gregory J. Holland, William M. Gray, Christopher Landsea, George Craig, Jenni L. Evans, Yoshio Kurihara and Charles P. Guard, 1994: Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 2147-2157.
  57. Evans, Jenni L., 1993: Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 6, 1133-1140, doi:<1133:SOTCIT>2.0.CO;2.
  58. Evans, Jenni L., and Robert J. Allan, 1992: El Niño/Southern Oscillation modification to the structure of the monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Australasian region. International Journal of Climatology, 12, 611-623, doi: 10.1002/joc.3370120607.
  59. Ryan, Brian F., Ian G. Watterson and Jenni L. Evans, 1992: Tropical cyclone frequencies inferred from Gray's yearly genesis parameter: Validation of GCM tropical climates. Geophysical Research Letters, 19, 1831-1834, doi:  10.1029/92GL02149.
  60. Holland, Gregory J., and Jenni L. Evans, 1992: Interactions between a barotropic vortex and an idealized subtropical ridge. Part II: Structure changes. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 49, 963-975, doi:<0963:IBABVA>2.0.CO;2.
  61. Evans, Jenni L., 1992: Comment on “Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate?” Geophysical Research Letters, 19, 1523-1524, doi: 10.1029/92GL01120.
  62. Evans, Jenni L., 1991: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Search, 22, 26-28.
  63. Evans, Jenni L., Gregory J. Holland and Russell L. Elsberry, 1991: Interactions between a barotropic vortex and an idealized subtropical ridge. Part I: Vortex motion. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 48, 301-314, doi:<0301:IBABVA>2.0.CO;2.
  64. Smith, Roger K., Michael J. Coughlan and Jenni L. Lopez (nee Evans), 1986: Southerly nocturnal wind surges and bores in northeastern Australia. Monthly Weather Review, 114, 1501-1518, doi:<1501:SNWSAB>2.0.CO;2.